Hiding In Plain View: The Bradley Effect

Since Sen. Barack Obama became the frontrunner for the presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, many pundits and strategist have been talking about what role the Bradley effect will play in this year’s election. The Bradley effect is when white voters tell pollsters that they vote for an African-American because they don’t won’t to be perceived as racist but actually don’t vote for that candidate. In this election cycle, many pundits believe the Bradley effect is already calculated into the polls and explains why Sen. Obama isn’t leading by larger numbers in the poll.

While I think we will see a reverse Bradley effect (white people saying they aren’t voting for Obama but do), I think the so-called Bradley effect is right in our face but we’re looking in the wrong place. If you want to see the real Bradley effect look to the undecided numbers. Polls are consistently showing 5-9% of the country are undecideds. But are they really? After all, we’ve been inundated with presidential debates, robocalls, mounds of information and political calls left and right. This is the most covered presidential election in history.

So why are so many people undecided? I honestly suspect they aren’t. I suspect there are some people (1-3%) of the population that may truly be undecided but I suspect the remaining percentage accounts for the Bradley effect, which has become more subtle.
Rather than saying they are going to vote for Obama and then don’t, nowadays I believe this plays itself out in the form of those individuals telling pollsters they are undecided. This is why I believe Sen. Obama and his supporters should be cautious. This election is far from over, and I suspect, we will see on Tuesday that the Bradley effect is live and well. And we will know for certain on Wednesday morning what role it played in this election by looking at the extent to which these “undecideds” broke for Sen. John McCain vs. Sen Obama.